“It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future,” Yogi Berra famously said. The S&P 500 pushed to a new high last week and the yield on the 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond dropped to the year’s low May 15—confusing signals. Ordinarily, a rising stock market anticipates higher economic growth, and higher interest rates usually
Mixed economic signals and investor uncertainty are two interrelated topics we address this week. We explore bond and stock markets that are providing divergent messages. Then, we address a strategy—really a different perspective on what we already are doing—to address uncertainty in conditions like these. Fears over ‘lowflation’ serve up a bond market surprise. Yields
The prospect of interest rates remaining low for longer has become clearer in the first 100 days of Janet Yellen’s leadership at the Federal Reserve. At the same time the threat of new asset bubbles forming may have become more pronounced. These are views expressed by faculty at the Wharton Business School. While tapering of
The graduation season is just starting to bloom. This week we offer some perspective for the new graduate beginning a new chapter of life; we hope our words are broadly relevant to all our readers. Make uncertainty your friend. Uncertainty felt most acutely upon graduation never goes away. The challenge is to make uncertainty your
Patience is a virtue when it comes to investing. It’s human nature to want to own winners and avoid losers. Unfortunately, investor behavior often works against a successful long-term investment program. Generally, investors—left to their own devices—sell losers at the wrong time and invest in hot sectors, only to see the performance of recent winners
What time is it in your life? A number of recent conversations have centered on this topic. Is it time to transition to retirement, to relocate, to downsize, or to sell a business? All of these decisions--well-conceived and executed—can make a difference in the quality of your retirement. From an advisor’s perspective, it is beautiful
We’ve had quite a few discussions this week about taxes, particularly clients surprised about the amount of taxes they owe. This week’s blog highlights major themes of the legislative deal Congress passed Jan. 1, 2013, how you can plan to lower your tax bill through tax-efficient investing, and the new estate planning landscape. Higher 2013
Several clients and friends have posed Social Security questions in the last several weeks. While Social Security is a broad and deep topic, this week we highlight some of the major themes and questions raised. The Investment Return on Delaying Social Security. “For those who do live a long time the decision to delay Social
In an uncertain world, does any timeless investment wisdom exist that can guide one forward? Conversations with clients this week triggered consideration of a few pearls picked up over the years that are well-worth re-consideration. Wisdom from Peter Bernstein. The late Peter Bernstein was a financial historian, prolific author, and the head of his own
What is an investor to do in the face of mounting evidence of an overvalued market? This question was posed by a handful of clients this week in response to last week’s blog highlighting that investors currently are downplaying risk; that several valuation measures are flashing caution warnings; and that investors should be prepared for