Last week we presented the views of three commentators and summed it up by saying “It’s Time to Play Defense.” That generated more responses than usual, so this week, we drill a little deeper by asking “How do you play defense in the current market environment?” More from Howard Marks. “It seems most people in
As football season is upon us it is appropriate to borrow a sports metaphor and suggest it is time to play defense. At least that is what several thoughtful commentators suggest. Risk Revisited. “Memos from the Chairman”—penned by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital—never fail to deliver thoughtful commentary. His latest memo cautions that investor behavior
Achieving sustainable economic growth in the wake of the financial crisis has been long in coming. Optimistic expectations have been revised repeatedly. Now, it appears recovery finally is gaining a foothold and can be sustained for a while. The U.S. recovery looks sustainable this time. A genuine improvement in U.S. economic conditions seems to have
The Napa earthquake reminded us this week of our restless earth, about the unpredictability of external shocks to the market, and how we don’t need to be lulled to sleep when volatility is relatively low. Three Investing Lessons from the Napa Earthquake. Stocks and other risky assets have been doing particularly well the last few
News from Jackson Hole, Wyoming leads off this week, where central bankers from across the globe met last week. In addition, the analysts from Charles Schwab provide a market perspective, and an overlooked vehicle for saving for retirement is examined. No rate change until U.S. has 2% inflation and strong job market. Each year the
The markets are entering a “dead period”—the Fed won’t meet again until September; U.S. legislators on one of their extended breaks; Europeans go on vacation en masse; and Americans squeeze in their last vacations before school gets underway. With it goes lower trading volume, but does this quiet period reduce the risk of a market
U.S. economy returns to growth after winter downturn. The U.S. economy grew at a seasonally adjusted 4% in the second quarter, according to numbers released last week from the Commerce Department, topping most economists’ forecasts. This was a nice rebound from the first quarter’s steep contraction of 2.1%--the worst single quarter downturn in five years.
In our world of investment management and financial planning, uncertainty begets questions: sometimes the best reply to any of them is It Depends. This week we examine several current issues where It Depends. When will the Fed hike rates? It depends. What will the conflict in Iraq mean for the economy and investors—it depends. Will
Global growth appears to be gathering momentum after an unusual cold snap in the U.S. The employment picture has improved with four months of sustained job growth. And, inflation is firmly under control, with the implication that stock and bond markets are fairly valued in a low interest rate environment. Outlook for Global Growth. The
After a first quarter slump that appears weather-related, the economy appears to be picking up steam again. Economist Martin Feldstein sees faster growth ahead. Consumers are more confident, and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is advancing. America’s Move to Faster Growth. Output appears to be on track for the economy to grow at a